Recap 7 september 2010
November soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were up 1.9% on Monday to a three-week high and moved up a further.3% overnight. China soybean futures were slightly higher. Outside market forces appear negative this morning with a strong US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets overnight. There were still no deliveries for soybeans or meal overnight but September soybean oil deliveries came in at 641 contracts which pushed the 5-day total to 9,092. Weakness in wheat and corn overnight along with negative outside market forces helped to pressure the market after some strength early in the overnight session which had November soybeans up more than 8 cents from Friday’s close. Focus on the market this week is on the USDA Production report for later in the week and traders remain concerned with low corn yield estimates. November soybeans rallied sharply on Friday, trading at their highest level since August 18th. Traders said that a lower dollar added to the positive tone on Friday with meal also finding support from the surging corn market. Traders noted that higher equity markets since mid week have lent a supportive tone to an array of markets ahead of the three day holiday. Growers in Brazil have indicated in the past week that planted acreage is expected to rise this fall, but some forecasters are less certain that this will result in a bigger crop due to the potential drought-inducing effects of a La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. The pace of the US soybean harvest was increasing into the end of the week last week and may have accelerated even more into a mostly dry and cool weekend. Traders see the possibility of gulf moisture left over from tropical storm as a possibility for later this week which would slow harvest in the southern part of the Corn Belt. The Commitments of Traders reports as of August 31st for Soybeans showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 132,475 contracts, an increase of 1,510 contracts for the week and a buying trend is sometimes seen as a positive development. Commodity Index traders held a net long position of 185,324 contracts, up 817 for the week. For Soybean Meal, Non-Commercial traders were net long 70,390 contracts, an increase of 2,965 contracts. For Soybean Oil, Non-Commercial traders were net long 17,532 contracts, a decrease of 14,127 contracts for just one week and traders see the long liquidation trend as a short-term negative force. Private forecasts for the report continue to show yield estimates close to or just slightly below the last USDA forecast of 44 bu/acre. China futures pushed to a two-week high on Monday with continued talk of early cold weather to stop the growing season in some areas. Even with a good crop, traders see China import demand at a record high for the coming season. However, there are some concerns that the China reserve soybeans of 5-6 million tonnes may need to move onto the market as much of the stored soybeans are two years old and a significant release could slow import demand. Argentina crush in July jumped 22.2% from last year to 3.4 million tonnes.Bron:CME