December wheat was 12 1/2 cents higher overnight. The dollar moved higher. The dollar moved lower while gold pushed to further new all-time highs above $1400. Wheat posted substantial gains overnight that took the December contract to its highest level since September 20th. This marks the 4th day in a row that the December contract has taken out the previous day’s high and traders are crediting the strength to on-going inflationary fears along with the worst starting quality rating for the US winter wheat crop since 1991. This week’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat planting at 95% complete compared to 92% last week and 86% last year. The condition of the crop dropped to 45% good/excellent compared to 46% last week and 63% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. In 1991, the good-to-excellent number stood at just 43%. Dryness is the reason for the relatively poor rating, but forecasts call for light to moderate rains in the Dakotas and western Nebraska today with further rains in the northern Plains into the second half of the week. More importantly, another rain system is expected in the central Plains later in the week bringing light to moderate totals. This system may extend into the southern Plains, although totals there may be light and scattered. This system is expected to gather strength as it moves into Missouri and Iowa, bringing heavy totals to that area this weekend before running out of steam in Illinois. The eastern Midwest may miss this rain entirely with other soft red winter wheat areas as far south as the Delta possibly getting some moderate rains this weekend. The USDA will issue its latest monthly supply and demand report this morning. Traders are not looking for any major changes on the domestic front although there is a slight possibility that the export projection will be lowered. The USDA may also raise its estimate for Argentina due to favorable conditions there. The government of Argentina raised its wheat export projection over the weekend. This week’s export inspections for US wheat were 15.5 million bushels, down from 17.7 million bushels last week. Inspections need to average 25.5 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s current export projection. Cumulative inspections stand at 39.0% of the USDA’s projection versus a 5-year average of 47.1%

Bron: CME