May wheat was up 18 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look positive with wheat especially supported by the sharp drop in the US dollar. European milling wheat futures were up by more than 3% overnight as declining concerns over the situation in Japan and less negativity to the global economic outlook has helped ease the long liquidation selling trend from international money managers. Aggressive fund trader long liquidation selling has been a key negative force for the market in recent days. The sharp drop in the US dollar along with a threatening weather forecast (hot and dry for western Kansas and only a slight chance of some rains for the plains in the next week or more) has lent support. After trading as much as 29 3/4 cents higher on the session early yesterday, May wheat closed 5 3/4 cents lower on the day. The market saw solid support early from a general relief from the aggressive fund selling activity. Ideas that the market is oversold after the recent collapse and talk that the break may bring about some increased demand lent support. In addition, the market was supported from a generally dry forecast for the western sections of the winter wheat belt in the US. Traders indicate that at least nine vessels carrying grain to Japan are unable to discharge their cargoes due to problems at ports. July wheat is now down as much as $2.59 3/4 per bushel (27.8%) off of the February 9th peak. Tunisia bought 25,000 tonnes of soft wheat at their tender. Sudan is still in the market for 300,000 tonnes of wheat, and Jordan is tendering for 100,000 tonnes. Weakness in the US stock market into the mid-session helped pull the wheat well off of the early highs yesterday, but a recovery in the stock market overnight might be seen as a positive force today. For the weekly sales report, to be released before the open today, traders see sales near 500,000 tonnes.

Bron: CME