Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 21 september
December wheat was up 1 cent late in the overnight session. Outside market factors look somewhat negative today with a firm US dollar and some weakness in energy and other commodities. The market found some early support yesterday from a drier weather trend in the forecast for the southern plains and from concerns for getting the crop planted on time. The upside appears to be limited by good late-season weather in Canada and continued stiff competition from Russia and Ukraine. The winter wheat crop is only 14% planted compared to 6% last week and 19% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 22% and the previous low in progress for this time of the year was 14% in 2000. Texas is 8% planted vs. 21% average, and Oklahoma is 4% planted vs. 16% on average. A drier trend for the forecast for the southern plains and ideas that there may not have been enough rain to help get the winter wheat crop planted and off to a good start this season helped to support the market early yesterday. Weekend rains were better than expected, and this helped keep the selling pressure on early this week. December wheat closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but well off of the highs. July new crop Kansas City wheat closed lower, even with the slow pace of planting for the winter wheat crop. Kansas winter wheat crop insurance for this season is set at $8.62, up from $7.14 this past year, and this will boost efforts to get the crop planted. A more positive view of outside market forces with higher trade for energy and metal markets and some weakness in the US dollar helped support the market early yesterday. Ideas that the market is oversold after the recent sharp break was also seen as a positive force, and this may have sparked some short-covering support. Only very light showers are expected in the winter wheat areas this week, and traders remain concerned with the slow progress of plantings. A dry outlook for Ukraine and mostly dry weather in the forecast for Argentina are seen as potential positive forces ahead.