Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 08 November
December wheat was up 2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look slightly positive today with a weak US dollar and higher trade for energy and equity markets. Traders see better feeding demand for wheat for the world and US reports for release before the opening tomorrow as a positive demand factor. Ideas that the recently planted Ukraine crop could see significant damage into the spring and potential short-covering from fund traders are seen as potential positive forces. High global supply and stiff competition from the Black Sea region for exports are seen as negative forces. In addition, the current USDA estimate for ending stocks for soft red wheat is at a record high. The weekly winter wheat planting report showed that 94% of the crop is already planted compared to 89% last week and 95% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 92%. Crop conditions showed that 49% of the crop is rated good/excellent compared to 46% last week and 45% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 58% and the lowest on record was 44% in 1991. December wheat closed a few cents higher on the session yesterday in spite of weakness in soybeans and corn as Kansas City wheat was up 6 cents. Talk of potential losses for the Ukraine crop for 2012 and a positive tilt to outside markets helped to support but weak export news and a selling trend from fund traders in many agricultural markets helped to pressure. Weekly export inspections came in at 10.2 million bushels which was well below trade expectations. Exports need to average 18.6 million bushels each week to reach the USDA export projection for the year. Traders see a drop of near 20 million bushels in the ending stocks estimate for the USDA supply/demand update for tomorrow morning. December Minneapolis wheat closed higher and saw the highest close since October 11th. Japan seeks 142,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. South Korea passed on a tender to buy 55,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat indicating prices were too high. As of November 7th, Ukraine grain harvest has reached 52.4 million tonnes, up 29% from last year.