Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 14 November
December wheat was up 1 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look somewhat negative with higher trade in the US dollar and some weakness in energy and metal markets. The market faces continued stiff competition from key exporters, expanding global wheat ending stocks and a relatively high forecast for US ending stocks. Increased demand for wheat as a feedgrain is expected to continue to eat away at the hefty supply, and poor winter wheat weather for the US and Ukraine are seen as positive forces for the market. December wheat traded as much as 25 1/2 cents under December corn last week, which might encourage increased wheat feeding. As long as Ukraine and Russia remain as active exporters on the world market, US wheat export forecasts may continue to slip. December wheat closed slightly lower on the session Friday and managed a bounce of nearly 8 cents from the lows into the close. However, the market closed 20 cents lower for the week. Outside market forces were bullish for the market with a sharp break in the US dollar and a surge higher in metal and equity markets, but ideas that US wheat is still priced above the competition helped to pressure. Weekly sales were slow Thursday, and news of feedwheat imports from the UK helped to pressure the market. Weakness in corn was also seen as a negative force. Even a sharp break in the US dollar and strength in other commodity markets failed to provide much support. Fund were noted holding a hefty net short position in recent COT reports and were noted sellers again on Friday. Traders will monitor the speculative net short position in this afternoon’s Commitments of Traders report. The break pushed December wheat to the lowest level since October 13th. December Kansas City wheat closed moderately higher on the session after first trading at the lowest since October 13th. Saudi Arabia was said to be a buyer of 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia. Taiwan is tendering to buy 34,800 tonnes of US wheat. Algeria is tendering to buy 50,000 tonnes of wheat. While there have been reports that up to 30% of the Ukraine winter wheat plantings may be lost due to poor weather, Russia winter crop weather has been described as highly favorable.