Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 28 December
March wheat was trading up 4 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces are mixed this morning with a weaker dollar and firm equity markets but lower trade in energy and metal markets. With wheat priced as a feedgrain in many cases, the market continues to find support from the corn market rally. Futures pushed to the highest level since November 16th in overnight action and the March contract is up as much as 72 cents since December 16th. March wheat gapped higher yesterday and closed higher for the seventh day in a row. The market found support from sharply higher corn and soybean markets, which rallied off of crop concerns after the weekend rains came up short of expectations. More hot and dry weather is forecast over the next 10 days or so. The wheat market also found support from a weaker dollar and higher stock market. Weekly export inspections for wheat came in at 13.47 million bushels versus 16.43 million last week and 15.2 million needed each week to reach the USDA forecast for the year. Cumulative sales have reached 62.7% of the forecast for the marketing year versus a 5-year average of 58.7% for this time of the year. The Russia Agriculture ministry pegged 2011 grain production at 93.8 million tonnes as compared with 61 million tonnes for 2010. This was still down from 97 million tonnes for the 2009 season. Algeria bought 250,000-300,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat at their tender for 50,000 tonnes. The COT report as of Dec 20th showed non-commercial and non-reportable traders combined held a net short position of 78,086 contracts which is approaching the record net short of 82,964 contracts set on November 21st. Open interest is close to unchanged since December 20th.