Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 3 January
March wheat did not trade overnight due to holiday but traders see a higher opening based on supportive outside market forces and a continued dry forecast for Argentina. A surge higher in the China stock market, a sharp break in the US dollar and strength in gold and crude oil overnight are all seen as positive outside forces for the wheat market today. March wheat closed higher on the session Friday and up near 30 cents for the week as South America weather remains threatening to the other grains and new sellers are lacking. Short-covering was also seen as a supportive force as outside market forces were positive. Further weather-related buying in the grain markets, a weak US dollar and strength in gold were seen as factors to drive the market back up to near last week's highs. March KC wheat was up near 19 cents late in the day and pushed to the highest level since November 16th. Weekly export sales, which were released before the open on Friday, came in at 431,200 metric tonnes, which was slightly below expectations. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 77.3% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 74.1%. Sales of 247,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Bangladesh is tendering to buy 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine. The Commitments of Traders reports as of December 27th showed non-commercial traders were net short 44,156 contracts, a decrease of 11,366 contracts for the week. The short-covering trend from the fund traders is seen as a short-term positive force. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net short position of 66,670 contracts, down 11,416 contracts in just one week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 186,308 contracts, up 659.