Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 18 January
March wheat traded 4 1/2 cents lower late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look supportive today with strength in equity and energy markets and some weakness for the US dollar. Even with a positive tilt to outside market forces, the wheat market followed the other grains lower overnight. Open interest is up 57,618 contracts since March wheat peaked at 670 3/4 on January 3rd. Traders see the market as vulnerable to long liquidation selling if support levels are violated. Trend-following fund traders (non-commercial less index funds) have built up a net short position of 80,766 contracts as of January 10th which is close to the record (only 6 years of data) net short of 86,620 contracts. March wheat closed slightly higher on the session yesterday which may have come as a disappointment given the bullish tilt to outside market forces and the sharp sell-off last week. The surge higher in the China stock market, a lower US dollar and strength in other commodity markets were all seen as positive forces for commodity markets. In addition, strength in other grain markets supported the early gains. Sluggish export news and fears that Argentina and Australia could take over as more aggressive exporters as Russia movement slows helped to pull the market off of the early highs. Tunisia bought 75,000 tonnes of durum wheat in their tender to buy 125,000 tonnes. Weekly export inspections totaled just 13.43 million bushels which was well below trade expectations and lower than the 16.7 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Bangladesh is buying 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Ukraine. The United Arab Emirates bought 25,000 tonnes of hard wheat and 40,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat from the Black Sea region and from Kazakhstan.