Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 01 November
December wheat was down 11 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative today with a firm US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets. Outside market forces continue to dominate market attention, as the market traded to a 9-session low overnight. A sluggish export outlook remains a negative force and a stronger US dollar does not help. Crop conditions are poor in the US and Ukraine for the new crop season, but traders still see this as a back-burner issue. The weekly Crop Progress showed 89% of the US winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 82% last week and 92% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 89%. Traders remain concerned with losing acreage in Ohio if the weather does not improve, as plantings reached just 67% complete from 91% on average. The report also showed that only 46% of the crop was rated good/excellent compared to 47% last week and 46% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. This is the lowest rated crop on record for this time of the year. December wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday but managed to bounce 9 cents off of the early lows. The sharp rally in the US dollar and weakness in metal and energy markets helped to pressure wheat early in the day. Traders have less confidence that the Euro debt crisis has ended, and US economic news was sloppy. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 20.8 million bushels, which was near the high end of the trade expectations. This compares with 18.3 million bushels necessary each week to the USDA projection. Parts of the southern plains could see more rain later this week (mostly east) which will help lower moisture deficits for the region. Talk that excess moisture in Ohio could cause planted winter wheat areas to decline significantly helped to provide some underlying support. Fears of further selling on the uncertainty surrounding a large clearing firm helped to add to the bearish news early, but this concerned diminished during the session. Egypt tendered for optional origin wheat after the close yesterday. Traders will be monitoring pricing of the tender in the morning. Egypt tendered for wheat after the close Friday and bought 120,000 tonnes from Ukraine. While the Black Sea region continues to get the business, the tender saw wheat selling at near $3.00-$6.00 per tonne above last week’s Russia purchase. Sales were made at $247.92 and $249.30 per tonne.