Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 03 November
December wheat was up 6 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look supportive this morning with higher trade in metal and energy markets and a positive tilt to equity markets overnight. The US dollar shifted from higher to lower overnight, and wheat remains sensitive to the US dollar action and the general movement of fund traders. With fund traders holding a hefty net short position in the last COT report, if there is an easing of monetary policy in China, which was rumored overnight, short-covering could be more active. December wheat closed moderately lower on the session yesterday and saw a 5-session low close. A lower US dollar and higher trade for other grains, equity markets and metal markets helped to support the bounce early. However, the market gave back the early gains and moved moderately lower on the session into the mid-day. Weakness in corn, ideas that the US will continue to see heavy export competition from other world exporters and talk of better weather for the southern plains into next week helped to pressure. Traders see improved moisture in dry areas of the US and Australia as a negative factor. The dollar’s bounce off of its lows and a setback in the stock market off of the early highs were also seen as a negative force going into the close. As more and more of Australia’s new crop wheat moves on the world market, East Asia demand is likely to shift to Australia, and this is seen as more competition for US wheat exporters. Kazakhstan grain harvest through November 1st reached 29.5 million tonnes as compared with 13.8 million last year. Bangladesh is tendering to buy 50,000 tonnes of wheat. Japan seeks 78,050 tonnes at their weekly tender.