Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 04 November
December wheat was unchanged late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look quiet to start the day today. The market remains in a relatively tight consolidation near 635 basis December and seems to be following the other grains. Export demand remains slow, but traders are hopeful that once Russia and Ukraine move a bit more wheat that international prices will firm. Feeding demand is likely on the rise given the discount to corn and corn tightness around the world. This may show up as better demand in the US and world reports next week but will unlikely be enough to spark any concerns as global ending stocks hover near a ten year high. December wheat closed moderately higher on the session yesterday and managed to post a 3-session high. Export sales were on the low end of trade expectations, but outside markets were strong enough to support. Positive price action in gold, energy and other commodity markets helped to support as well. Traders suspected short-covering as active as fund traders held a hefty net short position in the last COT report. Rains in the forecast for the dry areas of the US and Australia and slow export news were seen as short-term negative forces. Much of the US rain, however, is expected to fall to the east of the driest areas, and Ukraine still looks dry. Weekly export sales for wheat, in the report released before the open yesterday, came in at 320,100 metric tonnes, which was below expectations. Cumulative wheat sales stand at 61.0% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 62.4%. Sales of 332,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The USDA attache in Australia pegged the production this season at 26 million tonnes, which is coming close to the all-time high of 26.3 million last year. The large exportable surplus from Australia is added competition on the world market. Black Sea producers have recently been dominating the tenders in the Middle East and North Africa.