Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 23 November
December wheat was down 12 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look bearish this morning with a surge to a 6-week high in the dollar and another sharp break in equity markets. The early break pushed December wheat to its lowest level since June 11, 2010, as the surge higher in the US dollar just makes US wheat less competitive on the world market. Traders are also trying to price in a greater potential for a global recession. Fears that the debt issues in Europe will continue to worsen and ideas that the financial markets will remain under the influence of the lack of progress out of Washington on the US debt situation are seen as negative forces. Traders believe that fund traders were already holding a record high net short position in wheat, so there is some talk that the downside potential is a bit limited from this point. December wheat closed higher on the session yesterday, while March closed down 6 cents on the session. The market followed the other grains higher early in the session, but there was not much in the way of short-covering from fund traders, and selling increased when the stock market slide lower on the day. While corn and soybean markets found enough support to close higher, the weak demand outlook kept selling pressure on March wheat and the deferred contracts. Nearby Kansas City wheat futures have fallen to their lowest level since July 2010. Ethiopia bought 300,000 tonnes of optional-origin wheat. Traders expect the wheat to be from the Black Sea region. Japan has passed on its weekly tender, and other export news is slow. December Minneapolis wheat closed 36 1/4 cents lower on the session yesterday, under the 100-day moving average for the first time since early October.