Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 29 November
March wheat was up 4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look slightly supportive this morning with higher global equity markets and more weakness in the US dollar. The market seems to have at least consolidated near the 595-600 level for March wheat for the last few days after the recent sharp losses. The combined spec and fund net short position for wheat in the latest COT report showed a new record level at a whopping 82,964 contracts. The report showed non-commercial traders were net short 57,750 contracts, an increase of 11,989 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 183,211 contracts, down 2,830. The report showed aggressive selling from specs but also a very oversold condition. The weekly Crop Progress reportshowed that 52% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good/excellent as of Sunday, compared to 50% last week and 47% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 60%. March wheat closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but close to 10 cents off of the early highs. December wheat closed unchanged on the day, and Kansas City wheat closed lower on the day after an early bounce. The surge higher in the US stock market and a sharp setback in the US dollar helped to support the market early, but there was not much in the way of new buying or short-covering, and the market drifted lower for much of the session. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 15.4 million bushels, which was right in line with trade expectations. This compares with 18.9 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Iraq is tendering to buy 50,000 tonnes of wheat. Japan seeks 104,963 tonnes.