Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 11/17/2010
March wheat was 9 3/4 cents higher overnight. The dollar was narrowly mixed. March wheat managed to post a gain overnight despite continued selling in corn and soybeans. One analyst attributed this to the fact that trend-following (manage) funds have long held a net short position in wheat. This stands in sharp contrast to markets such as corn and soybeans where these large traders have built up record or near record large net long positions in recent weeks. However, traders note that weather has become a somewhat negative price factor in wheat over the past week with some welcome rains hitting about half of the hard red winter wheat belt last week and more general rains arriving in the soft red winter wheat belt in the Midwest this week. The Midwestern rains pushed through the mid South yesterday and then north of the Ohio River to cover much of Indiana and Ohio, although coverage was less general in Illinois. Some US forecasters are calling for a return to dry conditions in the hard red winter wheat belt over the next 7 days with continued, mostly welcome rains in the southern soft red winter wheat belt. In yesterday’s action, funds were sellers in wheat and most other commodity markets and Chicago wheat lost ground to KC in the March and July contracts. Worries over anti-inflationary moves by China were cited as the main reasons for the break yesterday. Customs data released by the UK yesterday showed wheat exports running at 854,316 tonnes, nearly double the previous year’s pace for the year through September. This was due in large part to a sharp jump in shipments during September to 386,057 tonnes. The UN Foreign Agriculture Organization indicated that the area planted to wheat is on the rise in Europe and the United States, but they cut their estimate of total cereal production to 2.216 billion tonnes from a previous forecast of 2.239 billion.Bron:CME