March wheat was down 1 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. A weaker US dollar leaves outside market forces as positive. Ideas that Egypt, like Algeria and Tunisia, would buy more wheat to help ease political tensions helped support the rally yesterday, but the market saw a sell-off overnight on ideas that they are in no position yet to do so. In fact, the market is seeing delays in previously booked wheat from the US due to suspended port operations resulting from anti-government protests. Shipping operations have been halted except for movement through the Suez Canal. The market did see some recovery from lows overnight with the dollar movement and significant uncertainty for the winter wheat crop in the US. If there is not a deep enough snow cover from the current storm for western Kansas and Oklahoma, these areas will be vulnerable to winterkill damage when below-zero temperatures move into the region following the snow. There is significant uncertainty over the weather’s potential effect. The possibitly of there being less snow cover than previously expected for the western winter wheat helped support strong gains in wheat yesterday. In addition, ideas that the Egyptian situation did not worsen over the weekend and a sense that situation could be resolved fairly quickly helped support US equities and reduce some of the threat that wheat imports by Egypt would be threatened. Ideas that the break on Friday was overdone helped support strong gains early in the session. A weaker US dollar added to the positive tone, as the tender wire remained active. Jordan is tendering to buy 100,000 tonnes of wheat. Iraq is also tendering for 100,000 tonnes, and Lebanon is tendering to buy 22,500 tonnes of milling wheat. Bangladesh is in the market for 50,000 tonnes of wheat and 30,000 tonnes of rice. Russia will not need to extend the grain export ban beyond July 1st if the grain crop comes in above 80 million tonnes. The current forecast is as high as 87 million tonnes according to the deputy Agriculture Minister, compared with just 60.9 million tonnes last year. Pakistan plans to export 2 million tonnes. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 21.3 million bushels, which was about as expected. This was lower than the 24.6 million reported last week and below the 30.7 million needed each week to reach the USDA projection for the marketing year

Bron: CME