July wheat was 1 3/4 cents lower overnight. The dollar index was mixed to higher. Deliveries against the May wheat contract were 104 contracts today.

The wheat market has seen an uptick in export demand from the key Middle Eastern and North African markets in recent days, although the US continues to be shut out of sales to that region. An Iraqi official reported yesterday that the country has bought 250,000 tonnes of wheat with 150,000 tonnes coming from Russia and 100,000 from Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicates that the El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean has ended. There is some debate as to whether this will be followed by its weather opposite – a La Nina – which occurs about 40% of the time. El Ninos are associated with dry weather in Australia, and conditions remain dry in western wheat growing areas.

India has announced that will allow the export of 400,000 tonnes of wheat to neighboring Bangladesh. This represents an easing of that country’s ban on wheat exports following a struggle between agencies within the Indian Government as to whether the ban should be lifted. Exports have been banned since the run up to record price levels in wheat in 2007. In recent weeks, the Government of India has been predicting the arrival of normal monsoon rains later this month, and this year’s total production was record large. Japan bought 142,000 tonnes of wheat on its regular weekly tender.

In the US, wet weather from Oklahoma into the SW and central soft red wheat belt overnight was considered unwelcome for winter wheat. These rains are expected to continue today, with totals dropping as the system moves east into the end of the week. Forecasts call for warmer weather starting today and warm and dry conditions in many areas starting next week. This weather would be considered welcome. Longer term forecasts call for a ‘heat dome’ over the Plains and Midwest into the 8-16 day timeframe.
Bron:CME