Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/17/2010
December wheat was 13 3/4 cents higher overnight. The dollar was lower. December wheat posted substantial gains overnight along with corn and soybeans. This came against a backdrop of a lower dollar, higher crude oil and reports that China will maintain a loose monetary policy despite concern over the potential for domestic inflation. Planting is well underway for winter wheat in the US and recent rains in the central Plains, Missouri and the Ohio Valley have been considered beneficial in that regard, although areas of dryness persist from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. In India, ample rains have boosted the 2011 wheat production outlook with the Farm Secretary there pegging the 2011 crop at 82 million tonnes. Indian wheat stocks stand at an estimated 31 million tonnes, almost eight times the planned goal of just 4 million tonnes. Despite the abundant supplies, India continues to maintain a general ban on private wheat exports. Wet weather in Saskatchewan, Canada continues to hamper harvesting with the later-than-normal spring wheat crop only 5% harvested as of Monday. A killing frost hit Alberta overnight but traders do not see widespread damage with much of the crop near mature. Net weekly export sales for wheat came in below trade expectations yesterday at 484,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and -165,000 for next marketing year for a total of 319,600. As of September 9th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 45.6% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 versus a 5-year average of 49.1%. Sales need to average 489,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture projected this year’s wheat crop at 10.0 to 11.2 million tonnes yesterday. The USDA is currently projecting 2010/11 production there at 12.0 million tonnes. Planting in Argentina has been complete for several weeks. December wheat pushed lower yesterday which pushed the market to its lowest level since September 9th, although overnight gains took the market back up into the early-to-mid September trading range. Talk of high stocks in the US and the outlook for increased planted area in the US and many other key exporters helped to pressure. While traders see the possibility of tightening ending stocks ahead "if" the USDA is forced to raise exports further, US ending stocks are currently pegged at the second highest level in 11 years and soft red winter ending stocks projected at their second highest level in history.