Wheat Market Recap Report for 2/3/2011
March Wheat finished down 4 at 859, 13 3/4 off the high and 13 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 2 3/4 at 912. This was 15 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. March wheat closed 4 cents lower on the day after posting a new contract high and the reversal is seen as a negative short-term technical indicator. However, the close was up 13 cents from the lows of the day as the market saw a late burst of buying support. Ideas that the panic buying of the recent past has slowed, that the short-term supportive weather news may have peaked plus slower than expected weekly export sales news helped to pressure the market. In addition, a stronger US dollar helped to drive the market lower early in the session. However, buying emerged on the early sharp break and a turn higher in soybeans and corn helped support the bounce to higher on the day into the mid-session. Ideas that some fields which were unprotected from the cold weather could see some winterkill damaged helped to support the market on the early sharp break. Weekly export sales came in at 534,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 31,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 565,400. As of January 27th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 81.0% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 81.3%. Sales of 377,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. News from the UN that their food price index hit a new record high in January and was up for the 7th month in a row plus talk that eventually Egypt may need to increase their import flow of wheat and food items once workers return to port and shops helped to support. The EU granted export licenses for 346,000 tonnes of soft wheat this week which pushed the cumulative total for the marketing year to 12.6 million tonnes from 10.3 million last year. Traders see December 31st Canadian wheat stocks near 20.0-20.5 million tonnes as compared with 22.524 million last year. March Oats closed up 2 1/4 at 415 3/4. This was 7 1/4 up from the low and 4 off the high.
Bron: CME