Wheat: Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 04 August 2011
September wheat was down 12 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market factors are bearish with the surge in the US dollar and weakness in other commodity markets. The sharp run higher in the US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets seems to be attracting fund selling today. Wheat has followed the corn market recently on ideas of increased wheat feeding, but the jump in the US dollar and continued concerns for the competitive pricing by Russia has traders concerned over slow exports. The USDA attache in Russia raised their grain production forecast this year by 1.5 million tonnes to 87 million. Grain traders are looking for Ukraine’s exports to be up around 20 million tonnes this year from just 12.7 million last year. September wheat closed moderately lower yesterday, giving back a part of Tuesday’s strong gains. The market lacked the strong and urgent short-covering seen on Tuesday. While there was a positive tilt to outside markets with a sharp break in the US dollar and a jump to record high gold prices, the wheat market followed the direction of the corn market to trade slightly lower on the day early in the session. Some concerns for quality issues in Germany from too much rain and talk that cool and dry weather in Australia could downgrade the crop helped to provide some underlying support. Talk of a surge in Russian grain exports to around 3.5 million tonnes in August from a record high 2 million in July helped to pressure the market. Egypt tendered for 55,000-60,000 tonnes of US soft white wheat after the close, and they are also tendering for 60,000 tonnes of optional origin soft or milling wheat. Traders expect results today.