Wheat: Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 3/28/2011
May wheat was up 4 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces looked slightly negative with a strong US dollar and weakness in metals and energy markets. The dryness outlook for western Kansas and parts of China are seen as positive weather factors this morning, while some rains for Western European wheat areas are beginning to ease concerns. Weather in the Black Sea region will also be monitored closely over the near term. With the huge snow cover in the north and below normal temperatures still in the forecast for the northern plains, the spring wheat plantings outlook is also in question even if the survey this week shows intentions to plant. Traders will continue to monitor crops as both world and US stocks look adequate for the coming year “if” weather is normal, but so far, crop conditions in the US are poor and the western regions of the winter wheat belt are in need of a good soaking, which is still not in the forecast. May wheat closed 6 1/4 cents lower on the session Friday but up 10 1/4 cents for the week. The early rally pushed the market to its highest level since March 10th before turning lower. The market closed 19 3/4 cents lower from the day’s peak. Talk of China buying corn with the announced sale of 1.25 million tonnes to an unknown destination, talk of China buying US wheat in Thursday’s weekly sales report plus uncertainty on winter wheat weather in China’s dry growing regions this week helped support strong gains early in the session. Profit-taking selling emerged early in the day, and the selling intensified into the mid-session as stops were activated when the market turned lower on the day. China will begin selling feedwheat from reserves this week. End of the week long liquidation selling was seen as active on Friday, with some talk that grain traders did not want to hold longs over the weekend with uncertainty on the Japanese situation. European million wheat futures were up 3% on Friday, finding support from dryness issues in France. The Commitments of Traders reports as of March 22nd showed non-commercial traders were net long 13,045 contracts, a decrease of 12,213 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 209,543 contracts, up 3,030 contracts for the week