Wheat: Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 3/29/2011
May wheat was up 3 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look negative with a strong US dollar and weakness in metals and energy markets. Positioning ahead of key USDA reports and a weak tone to the corn market has helped pull wheat off of the recent highs and back into a recent consolidation. While there is mostly dry weather in the forecast for western Kansas, some rain is possible with several systems moving across the plains in the next ten days, which will bring some rains mostly for the eastern winter wheat belt. However, dryness in China wheat areas and some dry weather concerns for Russia and the Black Sea region might help provide some underlying support. This is offset by positive supply news from India, where officials see a harvest in excess of 81.5 million tonnes, and there is talk of allowing exports for the first time since 2007. May wheat closed moderately lower on the session yesterday, near the lows of the day. The aggressive selling in corn spilled over to pressure the wheat market. The weekly crop conditions news released late yesterday showed Kansas wheat rated in good to excellent condition at 31%. which was up slightly from recent readings but still down from the 5-year average of 48.3% and 70% last year at this time. In Oklahoma, only 21% was rated good to excellent vs. 46% poor to very poor. In Texas, only 11% was rated good with zero excellent. Very poor readings reached 32%, and 30% was rated poor. Talk of a dry and sometimes warm outlook for the western growing areas of the winter wheat belt plus higher trade in Europe yesterday helped support a higher opening. However, weakness in corn and other agricultural markets helped spark selling. Iraq bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat with 100,000 from Australia and the rest US wheat. Iraq consumes nearly 4.5 million tonnes of wheat per year, with most of it from imports. India was the lowest bidder on a tender from Bangladesh to buy 50,000 tonnes of wheat. Ideas that too much moisture late last year plus big snow cover melting will increase chances of flooding issues in the northern plains along the red river were seen as a potential supportive forces. Russian grain prices have been under pressure recently as there were increased concerns over the potential for more hidden reserves to emerge ahead of the new crop season. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.53 million bushels, which was at the high end of expectations. Shipments of 31.2 million bushels are needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Traders see spring wheat plantings near 13.7 million acres from 13.698 million last year and total wheat plantings near 57.2 million from 53.6 million last year. March 1st stocks are thought to be near 1.4 billion bushels from 1.356 billion bushels last year.