Wheat: Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 3/31/2011
May wheat was down 1 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look positive today. The market’s focus is on this morning’s USDA reports. If the reports are neutral news, the focus will likely quickly shift to weather. European milling wheat futures are also slightly lower ahead of the reports. May wheat closed near the lows of the session yesterday and down more than 10 cents on the day, but it managed to have an inside trading session in the process. July KC wheat garnered some support from the weather and traded at its highest level since March 9th before closing lower on the day. The market had pushed lower early in the session, but ideas of a stressful weather forecast for the central and western sections of the southern plains helped to support the market on the early break. A recovery in soybeans ahead of the reports also helped support the market, but active selling late in the day helped to pressure the market later in the session. Private exporters reported to the USDA that 150,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat were sold to an unknown destination for the 2011/12 marketing year. While the Indian government will likely wait for more yield information on the wheat harvest before allowing significant exports, traders see the them eventually allowing 2-3 million tonnes to leave the country. On top of having a record or near-record crop, India’s stock levels as of March 1st came to 17.2 million tonnes, more than double the government’s target of 8.2 million. The weekly export sales report, to be released ahead of the opening today, is expected show wheat salse arounf 600,000 tonnes, down from 745,800 tonnes last week. Traders are looking for spring wheat plantings to come in around 13.7 million acres in this morning’s Prospective Plantings report, which is to be released this morning, ahead of the open. This would be virtually unchanged from last year. However, total wheat plantings are expected to come in at 57.2 million, up from 53.6 million last year. Trader expectations for March 1st wheat stocks are around 1.4 billion bushels, up from 1.356 billion bushels last year. Estimates range from 1.275 billion to 1.488 billion.Bron: CME